By J.-R. Frisch (auth.), J.-R. Frisch (eds.)
In 1977, on the Xth international strength convention in Istanbul, the Conservation fee offered an preliminary worldwide examine of destiny traits in power provide and insist as much as 2020. This pioneering paintings used to be the beginning of enormous scale international power surveys. on the Munich convention of 1980, the fee made extra thorough analyses via concentrating relatively at the particular behaviour of 3rd international countries. at the present time, in New Delhi, in accordance with the culture tested by means of its past surveys, the fee is constructing a brand new worldwide examine, the originality of which lies within the strategy followed in its creation. Rejecting centralised forecasting versions that have nearly completely ruled the minds of researchers, the fee prompt a decen tralised approach to method which used to be different either in its uncomplicated ideas and in its implementation. primarily, the population of the areas have been to accept the potential of expressing their very own perspectives on their power destiny, instead of enforcing on them an exterior version and hence exterior results.
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Extra resources for Energy 2000–2020: World Prospects and Regional Stresses
Under Scenario (II), coal imports will be limited to 20 MTOE. On the other hand, oil exports will practically disappear (70 MTOE in 1978), while oil imports will grow to 130 MTOE by 2000, and 225 MTOE by 2020, under Scenario (1), representing 22% of world oil imports, making South-East Asia the world's second oil importer. Under Scenario (II), the growth of oil imports will be limited to 70 MTOE by 2000, and 45 MTOE by 2020, representing 6-7% of world oil imports. Only natural gas will be available for exports: 30-50 MTOE by 2020 (14% of world gas exports), making South-East Asia the world's third gas exporter.
On the one hand, coal imports will rise sharply under Scenario (I): 40 MTOE by 2000, and 130 MTOE by 2020, representing 18% of world coal imports, making South-East Asia the world's second coal importer. Under Scenario (II), coal imports will be limited to 20 MTOE. On the other hand, oil exports will practically disappear (70 MTOE in 1978), while oil imports will grow to 130 MTOE by 2000, and 225 MTOE by 2020, under Scenario (1), representing 22% of world oil imports, making South-East Asia the world's second oil importer.
But R5 has already the highest GNP per capita of all Third World regions: $1600 in 1978. This will increase at very fast rates to $3400 (II) or $6000 (I) by 2020. Consequently, its growth will be very different according to the scenarios. 5-8% by 2020. Energy consumption R5's share in world energy consumption is still very low: 2% in 1978, for a volume of 130 MTOE. Nevertheless, non-commercial sources have already been largely abandoned. 5% by 2020. The volumes involved will be considerable: 380-550 MTOE by 2000, and 700-1300 MTOE by 2020, when R5 is the world's fifth or sixth energy consumer, while it was only number 10 in 1978.