Download Ecole d'Ete de Probabilites de Saint-Flour III. 1973 by P. A. Meyer, P. Priouret, F. Spitzer, A. Badrikian, P. L. PDF

By P. A. Meyer, P. Priouret, F. Spitzer, A. Badrikian, P. L. Hennequin

Les textes qu'on trouvera dans ce recueil constituent los angeles redaction finale des cours donnes a l'Ecole de Calcul des Probabilites de Saint Flour du four au 20 Juillet 1973.

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Ecole d'Ete de Probabilites de Saint-Flour III. 1973

Les textes qu'on trouvera dans ce recueil constituent l. a. redaction finale des cours donnes a l'Ecole de Calcul des Probabilites de Saint Flour du four au 20 Juillet 1973.

Stochastic models, estimation and control. Volume 3

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What is the physical nature of the processes underlying “as if ” probabilities, such that they give rise to outcomes that are probabilistically patterned, stochastically independent, and so on? The propensity account is silent. Its goal is metaphysical legislation, not physical understanding. 25 All subjectivist accounts are broadly agreed that what distinguishes the subjective probabilities that are considered “scientific” and perhaps “real” from those that are reflections of mere opinion is a kind of invariance under the influence of further information, what Skyrms calls resilience.

Aggregation of Probabilities In the aggregation stage, probabilities concerning the behavior of enions are combined to form probabilities concerning the behavior of enion statistics, that is, probabilities concerning the dynamics of macrovariables. For example, the probabilities of individual rabbit births and deaths may be combined to produce the probabilities of various possible future population levels of a community of rabbits. 21. The macrolevel probabilities that result from aggregation are functions of whatever information determines the enion probabilities.

Aggregation of Probabilities In the aggregation stage, probabilities concerning the behavior of enions are combined to form probabilities concerning the behavior of enion statistics, that is, probabilities concerning the dynamics of macrovariables. For example, the probabilities of individual rabbit births and deaths may be combined to produce the probabilities of various possible future population levels of a community of rabbits. 21. The macrolevel probabilities that result from aggregation are functions of whatever information determines the enion probabilities.

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