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By Raymond S. Nickerson

Inability to imagine probabilistically makes one liable to a number of irrational fears and susceptible to scams designed to take advantage of probabilistic naiveté, impairs selection making less than uncertainty, allows the misinterpretation of statistical details, and precludes severe evaluate of probability claims. Cognition and likelihood provides an summary of the knowledge had to stay away from such pitfalls and to evaluate and reply to probabilistic events in a rational manner. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how stable everyone is at considering probabilistically and the way constant their reasoning lower than uncertainty is with rules of mathematical data and likelihood idea. He reports proof that has been produced in researchers' makes an attempt to enquire those and related forms of questions. Seven conceptual chapters tackle such themes as chance, likelihood, randomness, coincidences, inverse likelihood, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. the rest 5 chapters concentrate on empirical experiences of individuals' skills and barriers as probabilistic thinkers. issues contain estimation and prediction, belief of covariation, selection less than uncertainty, and other people as intuitive probabilists.

Cognition and likelihood is meant to attract researchers and scholars within the parts of likelihood, information, psychology, company, economics, determination conception, and social dilemmas.

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Extra resources for Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

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Consider a set of points distributed as shown in Fig. 5. It is easy to imagine a partitioning of this space for which a chi-square test would provide evidence of randomness. If one divides the area into 16 equal squares as shown in Fig. 75, so one cannot reject the hypothesis of a chance distribution. But in inspecting the original distribution, one may notice that there appear to be more points in the upper right and lower left quadrants than in the upper left and lower right. If one divides the total area into four equal-size squares, as in Fig.

When data suggesting structure are obtained from observation and they are not subject to experimental corroboration, as in the case of the distribution of stars, perhaps the best that can be done is to consider the aggregate weight of all the data that can be brought to bear on the question of interest. THE PRODUCTION AND PERCEPTION OF RANDOMNESS Charles Dickens is said to have refused, late one December, to travel by train because the annual quota of railroad accidents in Britain had not yet been filled that year.

Davis and Hersh (1981) point out that there are a good dozen different definitions of a random sequence—but it is not easy to find a definition with which experts agree. There are, however, certain concepts that one encounters often in discussions of randomness and that characterize properties that a random set or sequence is expected, at least by some observers, to have. Among the more common of these properties are equal representation, irregularity or unpredictability, and incompressibility.

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