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By Ernest J. Moniz

This important quantity arose out of the luck of the 1st workshop of the Cyprus Institute held in 2005. The complaints current an summary of the consequences of weather switch for the japanese Mediterranean and the impression of weather swap reaction on local financial task, quite within the hydrocarbon undefined. This booklet is aimed not only at scientists and researchers yet should still command a wider viewers, together with coverage makers and politicians.

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Sample text

One example of such events is the “Eastern Mediterranean Transient”, which has led to massive replacement of the eastern Mediterranean by a rapid series of events in the early 1990s (Roether et al. 1996). Another case is the anomalous warm summer season of 2003 which primarily affected the western Mediterranean (Beniston 2004), heating up the surface waters (Figures 8a, b, c) to rare levels in the available record. It is expected that such warm events would take place with increasing frequency and variability, as a result of global warming.

2 Demand Gap The EU produces only around 46% of its gas consumption. Around 230 bcm was imported by pipeline in 2004, 53% from Russia, 32% from Norway and almost 15% from Algeria. Another 36 bcm was imported as liquefied natural gas (LNG), mainly from Africa (85%) while a smaller share (15%) was imported from the Middle East (BP 2005; NPD 2004). It is expected that natural gas production will fall within Europe and further enhance the supply gap over the coming decades, although the current high gas prices may extend reserves slightly and thus prolong production.

4 times projected imports in 2010 or average daily demand will increase by 18% while maximum daily supply capacity will increase by less than 5%, from 404 mcm to 423 mcm. Nevertheless, in the short term up to 2010–2015 there are several signs indicating that the EU may be oversupplied with gas. For instance, if demand evolves as forecasted by the IEA (2004a) annual import need may amount to around 340 bcm in 2010 compared to 233 bcm in 2002 (see Figure 2). Algeria, Norway and Russia are the main suppliers to the EU and supplied around 240 bcm of gas to EU-25 in 2003.

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